Keep in mind that this isn’t set in stone. It could be a lot less, or possibly more! At any rate, it looks like the Sierra will finally see some snow in the coming week.

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URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
401 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2011

…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…

.AN UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
BANDS OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

CAZ071-282300-
/O.NEW.KREV.WW.Y.0025.110528T2100Z-110529T0600Z/
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PORTOLA…SUSANVILLE
401 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2011

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY…AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PLUMAS AND SIERRA COUNTIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 NEAR AND
ABOVE 5000 FEET. EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS…UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SNOW LEVELS: 5000 TO 5500 FEET…THEN LOWERING TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. CHAIN CONTROLS POSSIBLE BY THIS
EVENING OVER YUBA PASS AND FREDONYER SUMMIT…HIGHWAY 89 NORTH
OF TRUCKEE AND HIGHWAY 44 WEST OF SUSANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO POSE AN INCONVENIENCE TO TRAVELERS. ROADS
WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS…WITH SNOW AND ICE FIRST
DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND USE CAUTION. CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO OR LISTEN
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

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On top of that, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra Nevada through 6am Thrusday. 2-4 inches of snow are forecast above 5000 ft with larger amounts possible at the higher elevations.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS…WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO
KINGS CANYON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 6000 FEET.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
SUNDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SHAVER LAKE…HUNTINGTON LAKE…WISHON DAM.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE
CRESTS.

* IMPACTS: LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER WITH SNOW…STRONG WINDS
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. MANY PEOPLE HAVE PUT AWAY THEIR
WINTER TRAVELING GEAR BECAUSE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN MUCH
WARMER LATELY. BE AWARE THAT DANGEROUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS
IN ICE AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THUNDERSNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

Here’s a brief discription of the LRC from their website. Click the link above for moch more info.

The Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (or LRC) is a theory developed by Gary Lezak.  Gary noticed back in the 1980s that storm systems seemed to have similar characteristics unique to that year.  Quite simply a storm in February looked very similar to one that had occurred earlier in that season, say in December.  As the years went by Gary started paying closer attention to the weather patterns and he came up with the LRC.

The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle)

• A unique weather pattern sets up every autumn between October 1st and November 10th
• “Long term” longwave troughs and ridges become established over the northern hemisphere
• The pattern cycles and repeats over and over again until it slowly weakens and falls apart during the mid summer months

A lot of research is currently being done in an attempt to prove the theory, but in the very least in the goal of showing that the LRC exists.

This year the pattern has been cycling around 50 days. We are currently on the 5th cycle.

Using this theory, it’s no surprise to me that the Sierra is getting this storm. It has stormed in the Sierra during this part of the pattern 3 of the 4 previous cycles, with two of the times, December 13-23 and March 23-28 being the largest storms that the Sierra saw over the winter. Back in late October, the first time through the cycle, this part of the pattern brought the first snows to the Sierra. It was during the third cycle, in early Feb. that the Sierra didn’t get any storms because of the very strong Eastern Pacific Ridge that had built up and was pushing the storms north into Canada.

Using the LRC as a guide, I feel pretty confident in saying we will see unsettled, colder than normal weather in the Sierra Nevada for the next couple of weeks. The long range models support this.

It’s going to be quite a while before hiking season starts in the backcountry of the Sierra Nevada this year, and when it does, the creeks will be very high and swift.

As a side note, I just checked some of the Sierra ski areas and they are still reporting base depths ranging from 10 – 21 feet!!

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Snow is expected to begin later tonight with some of the heaviest snow falling tomorrow afternoon as thunderstorms form over the mountains. Good chance the Sierra will see some thundersnow tomorrow.

Inclement weather will continue for the Sierra next week. The five day forecast is calling for a chance of snow or rain through Wednesday.

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Here’s Maritn’s finished painting, titled “Sun Lit Sierras”

Personally, I think it’s awesome and it’s now my desktop picture on the computer. The original size of the painting is 30 x 40. I bet it’s spectacular to see in person. Martin and I plan on collaborating again in the future with another of my Sierra Nevada photos.

Check out Martin’s web site to see more of his great paintings: Arriola, Original Art by Martin Arriola

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