For those of you who were following my weather blog, SE Wisconsin Weather, you know that I follow a weather theory called the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC.

Here’s a brief discription of the LRC from their website. Click the link above for moch more info.

The Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (or LRC) is a theory developed by Gary Lezak.  Gary noticed back in the 1980s that storm systems seemed to have similar characteristics unique to that year.  Quite simply a storm in February looked very similar to one that had occurred earlier in that season, say in December.  As the years went by Gary started paying closer attention to the weather patterns and he came up with the LRC.

The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle)

• A unique weather pattern sets up every autumn between October 1st and November 10th
• “Long term” longwave troughs and ridges become established over the northern hemisphere
• The pattern cycles and repeats over and over again until it slowly weakens and falls apart during the mid summer months

A lot of research is currently being done in an attempt to prove the theory, but in the very least in the goal of showing that the LRC exists.

This year the pattern has been cycling around 50 days. We are currently on the 5th cycle.

Using this theory, it’s no surprise to me that the Sierra is getting this storm. It has stormed in the Sierra during this part of the pattern 3 of the 4 previous cycles, with two of the times, December 13-23 and March 23-28 being the largest storms that the Sierra saw over the winter. Back in late October, the first time through the cycle, this part of the pattern brought the first snows to the Sierra. It was during the third cycle, in early Feb. that the Sierra didn’t get any storms because of the very strong Eastern Pacific Ridge that had built up and was pushing the storms north into Canada.

Using the LRC as a guide, I feel pretty confident in saying we will see unsettled, colder than normal weather in the Sierra Nevada for the next couple of weeks. The long range models support this.

It’s going to be quite a while before hiking season starts in the backcountry of the Sierra Nevada this year, and when it does, the creeks will be very high and swift.

As a side note, I just checked some of the Sierra ski areas and they are still reporting base depths ranging from 10 – 21 feet!!

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