Sierra Nevada Special Weather Statment
A major change in the weather is heading for the west coast beginning this weekend. Here is the special weather statement from the National Weather Service for the Sierra Nevada:
…WET WEATHER DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY…CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK…THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS IS DUE TO ARRIVE LATER
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN THE GATES TO A
VERY WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK.IT IS STILL TOO EARLY HOWEVER…TO SAY WHEN AND HOW MUCH EACH
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A CHANGE IS IN STORE…AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW IS NOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE AND FALL WITH EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM…BUT
IN GENERAL WILL BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA…FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE AROUND 10 FEET.RAINFALL IN THE VALLEY…THE TEHACHAPIS…AND HIGH DESERTS OF KERN
COUNTY COULD BE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…WITH 6
TO 8 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS.REMEMBER THESE NUMBERS ARE COMPUTER MODEL ESTIMATES…AND NOT A
SURE THING.FURTHER STATEMENTS ON THIS CHANGING PATTERN WILL BE ISSUED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS…AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
There’s also a lot of concern for the burn areas in Southern California. It’s possible that over 12 inches of rain could fall in those areas causing major flooding and mud slides. If you live below the burn areas you need to prepare now by sand bagging in the appropriate areas.
While certainly not wishing harm or destruction anywhere, I say “bring it on!”
I’m in total agreement with Karl. Slow and steady, but yes, bring it on!
The forecast is still saying 8-12 feet in the Sierra next week!!
They have been saying on the news out of LA that we are suppose to get between 8 – 16 inches near the foothills……. Coastal area’s between 8-12….still to much all in one week. Yep, we need to the rain but slow and steady as Kahlee mentiioned would be just fine. Oh well, Cecil better get the grass cut tomorrow before it hits….. Looking forward to all the Sierra Web Cam pictures next week of the snow……….
This is long, but worth the time. A friend sent it to me.
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done. But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.
This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
Okay I’m moderating my previous wish – bring it on but bring it on gently, as Kathlee alluded to. Seems like every time a big storm even has been forecast – in recent years at least, they often fizzle out. We’ll have to see if this forecast pans out. Meanwhile, batten down the hatches and keep the sandbags at the ready, etc. etc.
Oops I meant to say “Kahlee”.
Since living here in Camarillo for over 27 years, Cecil & I went through the last El Nino. We saw motor homes being washed down the Ventura River Bed…….not very much fun for those people who owned them. Of course the big mud slide along La Conchita area and the loss of lives…..so sad. So…sure hope this thing isn’t that bad but I guess we will find out. These weather people can look at maps and tell us things but who knows, at the last minutue things change…..lets all just hope for the best. By this time next week…..we will all know.
the tv stations always make it sound like it’s going to be the storm of the century and then it fizzles.
but,,,if you say something often enough…eventually you’re bound to be right.